[Korean grammar] -(으)ㄹ 게 뻔하다 Expressing Supposition and Possibility

(으)ㄹ 게 뻔하다 is used when the speaker can predict or clearly surmise the result of some future action or situation based on previews of similar experiences. It is used mainly to predict unfavorable resulting situations.

가: 강 작가한테 전화해서 원고를 언제쯤 넘겨줄 수 있는지 물어보세요.
Please call the author Kang to ask when he will be able to send the manuscript.
나: 밤새 글을 쓰는 사람이니까 지금 이 시간에는 자고 있을 게 뻔해요. 오후에 전화해 볼게요.
He’s the type of person who writes all through the night, so he’s definitely sleeping now. I’ll call him in the afternoon.
가: 이 번에는 마감 일을 지 킬 수 있을지 모르겠네요.
I wonder if he can keep the deadline this time.
나: 매 번 마감 일을 한참 넘 겨서 냈는데 이번이라고 제때 내겠어요? 아직 반도 완성하지 못했을 게 뻔해요.
He always sends his manuscripts way past the deadline, so do you really think he’ll submit them on time? He’s surely not even halfway done with it yet.

• 이번에 새로운 정책을 내놓지 못한다면 지지율이 바닥으로 떨어질 게 뻔하다.
If we aren’t able to put forth a new policy this time, then our approval rating will surely hit rock bottom.

• 그 개발 계획이 실행된다면 서해안의 관광 명소는 환경 오염으로 망가질 게 뻔하다.
It’s clear that the tourist attractions on the West Coast will be destroyed if that development plan is implemented.

• 그렇게 준비가 덜 된 자료를 가지고 갔으니 엄청 비난을 받았을 게 뻔하다.
I bet he was heavily criticized for taking along such shoddily prepared materials.

While this expression can be used in both the first person (“I”) and second/third person (“you,’’ “he” “she” etc.), it cannot be used when describing one’s own will or intention in the first person.
• 제가 현실 때문에 하고 싶은 일을 포기한다면 나중에 후회할 게 뻔해요. (〇)
This sentence is acceptable because regretting does not describe something the speaker intends or chooses to do.

• 저는 내년에 결혼할 게 뻔해요. (?)
—> 저는 내년에 결혼할 거예요. (〇)
While this expression can be used in cases of having to get married due to circumstances outside of one’s control, to the extent that is not the case, -(으)ㄹ 거예요 must be used.

While -았을/었을 게 뻔하다 and -(으)ㄹ 게 뻔했다 both describe situations related to the past, they have the following differences.

<Note> While this expression is similar in form to the expression -(으)ㄹ 뻔하다, which appeared at the intermediate level, that expression refers to the fact that something actually never happened even though it seemed as if it would. Take care not to confuse the two expressions.